Day 226

I realised today that it had been a while since I last did any serious match analysis. I dove right in to the data.

Some of the most interesting observations came from studying average positions of my players, together with the team’s positional heat map, across the past ten matches. It turns out that there are some patterns that correlate to our performance.

When we struggle, the more defensive-minded of my central midfielders spends much of the game sitting deeper than his teammates. When we dominate matches, he is just beyond the halfway line and to the left of centre—directing play. I believe that his influence—lately this has been Birchall—is vital to our attack. If he is caught up in deeper or more central positions, we lose the ball and fail to get plays off the ground.

We also get caught playing narrower in the defensive and middle thirds of the park. I think this is tied to the same problem, which affects distribution of the ball. But what is causing it, and how do I fix it?

This chart from the 2-1 loss against Wrexham shows the problem quite clearly, except that here both central midfielders have been caught playing deeper and more central—killing our wide play. You see we have very little width at all. In the previous image, we see dark spots across the entire middle third, from one side to the other. In the Wrexham match, it’s more like the middle eighth. Our play was compressed in both directions, stifling the creativity and pace of the wingers. With Koroma missing, there was no central player moving wide with the ball to create space.

Comparing the passing chart from the Gateshead win to that from the Wrexham defeat, my reasoning shows true. Passing against Wrexham was mostly longer forward balls through the middle, heaviest just inside our own half. Conversely, against Gateshead the passes are mostly shorter balls—in all directions—to and from the attacking side of the central third, spread across from one wing to the other.

Those are the big things I noticed; there were a few smaller observations that I feel aren’t consistent enough to judge on. I’ll keep an eye on the situation and bring them up if/when appropriate.

In the meantime, how do I fix this major issue? And what’s the root cause, in personnel or tactics?

I’m thinking that there are three things I need to watch. What are the opponents who keep us from playing our game doing differently to everyone else? How do I replicate Omar Koroma’s attacking dynamism on the forward line when he’s absent or marked out of the game? And how do I ensure that both central midfielders get the time and space to pull strings and pick out the runs of the wingers and strikers?

Now that I have a more quantitative perspective on this, I’ll hopefully be able to stamp it out before the inevitable run of losses hits.