Day 289

Wrexham, Grimsby, Gateshead, and Barrow made up their remaining game in hand today, finally placing every team under the same number of games played—I don’t think this has happened since Christmas. The final standings look to be pretty much set with a game to play. No team can climb more than three places, and most cannot even move up one.

In the play-off zone, where position dictates who plays whom, it seems likely that the pecking order will stay as it is now—Mansfield, Gateshead, Grimsby, Wrexham. Yep, Wrexham went from serious title contenders to fifth place with a difficult home game against Mansfield that must be won if they are to improve their lot. I think the play-offs are likely to be Wrexham versus Mansfield, Gateshead versus Grimsby. I’d tip Mansfield and Grimsby to win those ties, with Mansfield just edging out Grimsby in the play-off final.

I checked out the past positions in the league this season. The top five teams have been in the top five since round 14. Four of these five—Gateshead are the odd ones out—were there by round 8. That means the top end of the Conference League has been a fortress this season, impenetrable to nearly all of the 24 clubs.

The bottom end tells a similar story. Kettering never climbed above second last place. Barrow fell into the relegation zone in round 8 and never made it out. Braintree started poorly, rallied well, then slipped back into the relegation zone (and stayed there) after 18 matches. Stockport started strongly, then sunk into the horrid red zone in round 15—never to return.

While teams in the large middle section—from sixth all the way down to 20th—have exchanged positions and ebbed and flowed with the home and away schedule, the bookends of the table have held remarkably solid. I find that fascinating—this idea that there are five or six teams considerably better than the rest, four or five teams considerably worse, and a dozen or so that are fairly similar in ability.